Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Ontario and Canada 2015 November Jobs Numbers Analysis

I'm finally getting around to looking at the seasonally adjusted employment data for Canada and Ontario for November 2015.

For Canada, overall employment dropped by 35,700 in November, but curiously full-time increased by 36,600. Part-time dropped by 72,300.

For Ontario, overall employment decreased by 6,400 jobs. Similar to the overall Canadian numbers, full-time increased by 5,700 while part-time decreased by 12,000.
Since July overall employment in Ontario has decreased by 14,900 jobs which is interesting in terms of GDP growth. Ontario's GDP growth was weak in the first and second quarter and is supposed to be better in the third quarter, but the jobs numbers haven't really showed it and the fourth quarter jobs numbers aren't looking good. I'm not expecting much from the December numbers which we should get January 8th.

For the year to date, Ontario overall jobs have increased by 45,800 jobs. The employment age population increased over the same period by 115,600 indicating that employment growth has lagged population growth, which isn't going to be good for tax revenues per capita.

Friday, December 25, 2015

Breakdown of Hamilton's Six Murders in 2015, Carmon Ward Added

Breakdown of Hamilton 2015 homicides to this date with the sixth murder, Carmon Ward. All murders have been in the lower city apart from the latest two, in Waterdown and Ancaster. There have been four male victims and two female victims. All suspects are males. Of the six killings, three are shootings. You can find a list of the seven 2014 murders in Hamilton here.

Date of MurderVictim Victim's Age Cause of Death City Ward Suspect
January 8th, 2015Nathan Miller 20 Shooting 3 (28 Madison Avenue) Male 15, Jemaal Wilson, 20, Shamoiey Akindejoye 21
March 25th, 2015Renee Neganiwina 26 Fire? 4 (561 Kenilworth Avenue) Joseph Snelgrove, 38
May 15th, 2015William McConville 40 Beating 2 (Stinson and Victoria) Gordon Eugene O'Hara, 33, and Joshua Vernon O'Hara, 27
August 12th, 2015Shariek Douse 18 Shooting 2 (MacNab Street North and Simcoe Street) N/A
August 13th?, 2015Lori Constable 55 Asphyxiation 15 (Riley Street, Waterdown) Wayne Constable, 55 (husband, deceased, murder suicide
December 21st, 2015Carmon Ward 60 Shooting 12 (Miller Drive, Ancaster) N/A

Hamilton's Sixth Homicide, Carmon Ward

Carmon Ward was killed during a home invasion on December 21st in Ancaster. Ward, was a 60 year old male and killed by a gunshot wound to the chest. No suspect names have been released. The house was on Miller Drive, which is in Ward 12 and is Ancaster's first murder of the year. Ward is the third shooting victim out of six homicides in Hamilton this year.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

30% of Ontarians Use Electricity For Heat

The Globe has an article about how regulators are reducing natural gas prices for Ontarians by around $50 per year. That's not really a surprise, natural gas prices currently are really low. But there was a statistic that I found far more interesting:

"The 30 per cent of Ontario homes that use electricity for heating, and every other hydro consumer, will see bills rise again on Jan. 1 because of changes to Liberal government energy programs."

That it is that high is surprising to me. If I had to guess, I would have thought it was closer to 15%. However, what it does mean, is that Ontario's rapidly rising electricity prices are causing extra hardship for an appreciable portion of the province's population that uses electricity for heat beyond standard non-heating uses. Now granted, a lot of electricity heat users are likely apartment dwellers, which requires less heat than for an entire house, but the fact remains that their heating costs have gone up considerably over five or ten years ago, in an era of stagnant wages. I would be willing to bet that the electricity using person is likely poorer too, which is incredibly regressive.

Monday, December 7, 2015

GO Transit Fares Between Hamilton and Union Station to Rise By 60 Cents or 5.2%, After 4.5% Increase Last Year

GO Transit has announced that the fees for most rides (those above $5.70) will rise. For those fares above $8.25, the single adult paper fare will rise 60 cents.  That means for the $11.50 Hamilton to Union fare that is now $11.50 will rise to $12.10 which is a 5.2%. That's obviously a lot higher than Ontario's inflation rate and the rates have been rising more than inflation for years. Last year the fare increased by 50 cents from $11 to $11.50 or close to 4.5%.

For most Hamilton trips, I would guess the majority would come from the downtown GO station in Hamilton to Union station express bus. There's only six trains now one way in the morning and six back weekdays, while the buses run almost all day and on the weekends. Other GO Trips would come from the bus to the Aldershot GO station to transfer to the train, the GO bus to York University, buses from McMaster to Toronto, and the bus to Pearson that continues on to Richmond Hill. Thus for Hamilton, the vast numbers of users would be taking buses rather than trains.

Considering that the costs of diesel fuel have gone way down, and that bus driver fares have likely not risen 5.2% in one year, Hamiltonians are effectively subsidizing rides in those communities that have a majority of train users as train service expansion is comparatively more expensive than bus service, plus the costs of building parking lots at GO train terminals.